The FBI has quietly changed 20 years of homicide data from 2004 to 2023. Professor John Lott has published an article showing the FBI’s revised homicide data for 2022 and 2023. The previous numbers fed Biden/Harris administration talking points.
A close look at the data shows the FBI “adjusted” the homicide data from the last two decades, not just the last two years. The largest adjustment outside of 2021 and 2022 happened to the data from 2005. As of 2006, the total number of homicides reported by the FBI for 2005 was 16,740 for 2005 and 17,034 for 2006. In 2019, the numbers were reported as 16,740 and 17,309. As of 2024, the numbers were adjusted to 17,750 (added 1,010) for 2005 and 17,241 (dropped 68) for 2006.
What happened with the numbers in 2005? How do they hold steady for 13 years, then suddenly expand by over a thousand murders for the year? It is an increase of 6%.
It is reasonable for homicide numbers to be adjusted upwards for a few years after the initial reporting. Some reports may come in late. Some investigations may show a crime was a homicide instead of a suicide. People who were severely wounded may die. It is harder to see how the number of homicides decreases. Perhaps dates were misreported. The increase of over a thousand homicides in one year should be explained.
FBI UCR data are not simply raw numbers that are arithmetically added. National FBI data includes several estimates. From the 2019 Crime in the United States Table 1 data declaration:
Offense estimation
These tables contain statistics for the entire United States. Because not all law enforcement agencies provide data for complete reporting periods, the FBI includes estimated crime numbers in these presentations. The FBI computes estimates for participating agencies that do not provide 12 months of complete data. For agencies supplying 3 to 11 months of data, the national UCR Program estimates for the missing data by following a standard estimation procedure using the data provided by the agency. If an agency has supplied less than 3 months of data, the FBI computes estimates by using the known crime figures of similar areas within a state and assigning the same proportion of crime volumes to nonreporting agencies. The estimation process considers the following: population size covered by the agency; type of jurisdiction, e.g., police department versus sheriff’s office; and geographic location.
Much analysis has been done using the UCR numbers. A change of a thousand murders in one year might easily change a policy recommendation or the results of a paper using a model based on the first reported data.
It seems likely that computer models are used to calculate and adjust previous data years. In the interest of public trust, the processes used to create the numbers should be open and transparent. If people do not know how the numbers are changed, there is no reason to trust them.
The philosophy of “experts” creating policies for the public good rests on the “experts” having access to reliable data, the “experts” understanding the processes sufficiently to craft policies to improve the public good; and the “experts” placing the public good ahead of their own selfish or political interests.
Experience has shown data is often unreliable. The “public good” is often hotly disputed. Experts seldom place the “public good” ahead of their personal or political interests.
To expect all three conditions to be satisfied inside an administrative state is naive and unrealistic.
Transparency, limits on governmental power, and enforcing the independence of three separate branches of government can do much to limit the damage done by powerful administrators.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
