Right out of the chute this morning, we have to take a look at the new import and export prices report. They show a nearly remarkable change in our position as the world’s leading grifter.
The U.S. dollar – while down from near parity with the Euro a couple of weeks back – is still very strong. Most people, though, don’t sort through the logic-chain to consider all the ramifications of the Strong Buck.
When the dollar’s purchasing power goes up:
- It doesn’t take as many of them to buy an ounce of gold or silver.
- Oil – and some foodstuffs – see the same effect.
- It takes fewer dollars to by the same “break-up” value of publicly owned companies. Akin to the “book value” – remember that if you are paying with more powerful money, it goes further.
- For the past week or two, however, the dollar has softened (relative to the Euro, for example). As a result:
- Gold and silver are stronger
- Foodstuffs and energy commodities are seeming to rise.
- And this – in turn – fuels inflation.
We could write volumes (and look at 90-day Euro bond futures as indicators of what’s to come with future dollar valuations), but our task is never to turn you into a Swiss banker (gnome). Just a little more clear-thinking human than most.
Here’s how the import and export prices rolled, against the backdrop of a Strong Dollar which was really showing off the Wheaties during the (July) baseline measurement period:
“U.S. import prices decreased 1.4 percent in July, after advancing 0.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Lower fuel and nonfuel prices in July contributed to the decline in U.S.
import prices. The price index for U.S. exports fell 3.3 percent in July following a 0.7-percent advance the previous month.
Imports
Prices for U.S. imports declined on a monthly basis in July for the first time since December 2021, decreasing 1.4 percent. The decline was the largest drop in import prices since the index fell 2.6 percent in
April 2020. U.S. import prices rose 8.8 percent over the past 12 months, the smallest over-the-year increase since the index advanced 7.1 percent from March 2020 to March 2021.
Exports
U.S. export prices fell 3.3 percent in July, after rising 0.7 percent in June. The July decline was the largest 1-month decrease since the index fell 3.5 percent in April 2020. Lower agricultural and nonagricultural prices
each contributed to the July decline. Prices for U.S. exports rose 13.1 percent over the past year, the lowest 12-month advance since the index increased 9.6 percent in March 2021.”
About the only intelligent thing an investor can do is be aware of the rising (and for now falling) fate of the dollar.
Due to a server error, the week-ago discussion of where we are in Wave counts was overwritten on the Peoplenomics subscriber side.
Even the BTC (bitcoin) level today (around $23,800 at press time) is not clear as to what happens next with the currency swings. Partly because BTC is off in its own troubled bubble. Here’s one way of looking at it, however:
This chart mixes two charting concepts: trend channels (the yellow lines) and Elliott wave counting. Normally (Remember “normal?” Those were the days, huh…) the Elliott Wave count and the trend channels coincide.
The problem above is that we’re not sure whether the 3 down is complete. NORMAL would have continued down to the lower trend channel – but it didn’t. Still, the 3 down was larger than 1 down, so it MIGHT be complete. On the other hand, though it leaves us wondering whether this is the larger 4 OR we are in the smaller (iv) of the larger 3 yet to complete.
The BIG concern is that we MIGHT be (arguably) in the bigger scarier count. This might be numbered like this:
What most “dabblers” in cryptos don’t see is the incredible (Elliott wave) risks involved if BTC is in Wave 2 right now. This because one of the hard and fast rules of Elliott analysis is the “third wave is never the smallest wave.”
Put another way, from the all-time highs (call it $65,000 down to recent lows (under $20,000) the magnitude of wave 1 down was $45,000. Since Elliott requires a larger Wave 3 – we can now sketch out a situation in coming the coming year or two where:
- The chart for BTC continues up to (or above) the yellow trend channel and BTC rises to the $38,000 or higher area.
- Since Wave 1 is smaller than 3, BTC could rise to (throws dart) $42,099 and then collapses to zero.
What is on the horizon that could collapse the whole BTC digital-tulips bubble? What The Biden Administration’s Executive Order Means For The Crypto Industry came out in March of this year. While we can argue that only gold and silver are “constitutional money” it won’t matter. Plain simple fact is “Governments HATE competition.”
The Fed is looking at Crypto. Maybe all that NFT expertise of Hunter Biden should be a clue to the digital suckerfish?
Don’t think the Gold and Silver markets were/are manipulated? The under-reported financial story of the week (so far) is the Justice Department press release Former J.P. Morgan Traders Convicted of Fraud, Attempted Price Manipulation, and Spoofing in a Multi-Year Market Manipulation Scheme | OPA | Department of Justice.
Restitution for being a victim on the wrong side of the trade? Like the late Leslie Neilsen said: “Shirley, you can’t be serious.“ “I am Serious and don’t call me Shirley!”
Notice how the government hasn’t outlawed naked short-selling, either? Oh well…world’s gone to the crooks – like the past 30 years of elections hasn’t made that obvious, eh?
Our best guess – going into this morning (and this is never advice, mind you) is that we will maybe rally toward the close today. Futures up 150-ish for the Dow.
The problem is next week. It’s a real pisser. Because so many things are on the verge of blowing over. Among them is the August 17th problem. A ‘net-rumored hot date to keep an eye on.
Let’s line up the worries like this:
- U.S. markets have already within a hundred points (intraday this week) of completing a Wave 2 rally. Look how it pencils ahead:
What would be ideal (in a Boris Karloff way) would be a slightly higher high than our Aggregate reading of 36,305 to hit a bit closer to the 50 percent retracement for stock rally Wave 2. Then a decline into year-end with the market being about halved by New Years.
No, not saying this WILL happen, but it does (for the odds-playing day trader) get us to asking “Which is more likely between now and year end: Market prices doubling? Or market prices halving?”
Oddsmaker Jitters:
- Donald Trump could be in irons by the middle of next week. I can see the NY A.G. loving to do a perp-walk of Trump.
- While Labor Day has the best tides for an invasion of Taiwan, we need to keep a weather eye on the south end of Formosa where the live fire drills continue. In particular, Taiwan (with U.S. advisors) are puffing up in Taiwan holds its own live-fire drills, accusing China of rehearsing an invasion.
- And the U.S. seems to be going around Asia asking “Anyone want to come play live fire drills to intimidate China with us?” Yes, there are takers for such a proposition: Indonesia, US troops hold live-fire drill as China tensions mount.
- Next, we look at greedy mullahs in Tehran. With no pallets of cash from Biden, their pressure point is making and selling drone swarm warfare gear to the Russians. Iran Has Begun Training Russia to Use Its Advanced Drones, U.S. Says – WSJ.
- Add to the mix: Palestinians are stirring shit up again as Death toll from Israel-Gaza fighting rises to 48. Think they can distract Israel long enough to let the bomb builders in Tehran finish work? No way in hell…
- Which sets up the hot date for an Israeli strike sooner than later because Iran is playing everyone for time to keep their centrifuges running. Iran may accept EU proposal to revive nuclear deal if demands met, IRNA reports | Reuters.
- Throw in a bunch of wildcard possibilities like Biden being floored and 25th’ed out with Covid effects and a new president Harris in the Oval and you’ve got the makings of a Stephen King novel. (Will Tabitha mention it too him, please?) Politics and nukes can be pretty frightening…more so than most dogs (ahem…).
Plausible deniability Dept. Garland Calls Trump’s Bluff as Justice Department Moves to Unseal Warrant – DNyuz. And the reason for the Big Raid was? (Remember, think in King-like plot elements here): FBI searched Trump’s home to look for nuclear documents and other items, sources say. Since the Command in Chief can (if I’m not mistaken) declassify anything he wants, wouldn’t a simple backdated memo “I declassified that!” be a great skit element?
Too Much Government Dept. He went swimming after hours at Rockaway Beach, he ended up in handcuffs. Seriously?
Gambling Alert! Water in Vegas Update: Las Vegas slammed with more flash floods as iconic strip, casinos under water again. No word on whether additional bodies will be used to help refill Lake Mead.
Democrats run the NY Times? We often wonder, but more grist for debate in Bari Weiss Details Fight At NYT Over Sen. Tim Scott. Asking a dem to approve a GOP op-ed? Kabuki for children.
Great doctor appointment Thursday with my cardiologist. Come to find out I have what may have been a long-ago heart attack. No kidding. I didn’t ask at the time but turns out “silent” heart attacks are way more common than most people thing: Silent Heart Attack: Causes, Symptoms and Treatment (clevelandclinic.org) cites a 50-80 percent figure.
If mine isn’t an artifact, I think I know when and where.
Back 12-years ago, or so, Elaine and I were driving back to Texas from the Pacific Northwest. We were run off the road by a road rage crazy, who got out of his truck and came at us with a crowbar.
While Elaine rolled video, I waited until he was not quite to our car, but away from his and drove off.
This happened in a construction zone and we were lucky there was a cop there. The rage guy showed up and then drives off. I had a clean merge, but he floored it so as not to let us merge in a construction zone. (#${8a05783137a543f0d1b8dbd8e23d73f075e0d0841b710ae3051fabc69afe120d}^&*’er).
Adrenaline pumping, we waited a few minutes and then continued down to Reno.
But here’s the funny (suspect) part: Just after merging back into traffic I semi-of blacked out. Going in and out of consciousness, I collected myself enough to get the car stopped. Figured it was just my body dealing with an adrenaline overdose and passing out. Now I’m thinking, no, maybe a transient heart attack.
Now, in retrospect, maybe it was. Elaine and I swapped seats – she took over driving while I chilled out for a day or two at the Reno casino but was feeling great by two days into it.
The good news is I’m almost 30-pounds lighter than then, and no signs of any blockages now. So may have been a heart attack or it was an “artifact.”
Regardless, 2,200-calorie eating and all things in moderation is the plan. Sell distillery and wine stocks you may own.
Boring, but must be present to win is how Life works.
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
